2Q26 – Weak consumer & competition drive SSS of -4.5%, efficiencies mitigate

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Soriana

2Q26 – Weak consumer & competition

drive SSS of -4.5%, efficiencies mitigate

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 24.00 MXN | Price: 29.59 MXN

SSS -4.5%, EBITDA -7.3% ex other income, EPS +47.0%

31 July 2026

Despite weak operating results, EPS of Ps0.60 beat a Ps0.52 consensus on lower

financial expense and one-time tax benefit. Same stores fell 4.5%, on weaker consumer

demand and challenging competitive dynamics, and lagged ANTAD’s -0.1%. Total

revenue fell a greater 4.9% on 8 store closures over the LTM. Gross margin expanded

52bp on lower shrinkage, private label growth, real estate income and growth of

financial services. Efficiency efforts mitigated wage pressure and lost operating

leverage, but SG&A rose 69bp of sales, and EBITDA ex other income slipped 7.3% y/y

(margin -17bp). Reported EBITDA fell 4.3%. Lower D&A and funding costs, and a 17.8ppt

decline in effective tax rate, in part non-recurring, drove EPS growth of 47.0%.

Equity

Competitors accelerating expansion & price investment

Competitive challenges continue to intensify. Small box rivals are expected to add more

than 1,000 convenience food retail concepts in 2026 and further accelerate. FEMSA also

appears to be shifting Bara discount store openings from the Bajio to the Northeast,

adding a new dimension of challenge for Soriana. Simultaneously, FEMSA is expected to

further build out and improve value propositions in its OXXO grocery assortment, while

Walmex extends Everyday Low Pricing and Tiendas 3B accelerates expansion. These

more aggressively priced concepts are expected to further strengthen a trend toward

smaller tickets, rising frequency, downtrading and private label that is often expressed in

downturns among lower income consumers.

Macro & competitive challenges; real estate support

Soriana has moved to sharpen pricing, leverage technology to cut expenses, close

underperforming stores and reconfigure hypermarkets. Sluggish demand, rising labor

costs, and difficult competitive dynamics, however, drive our EPS cuts and underpin our

Underperform rating. Increasingly, we look for real estate holdings and book value to

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