TAB Gida (TABGD.IS): Continues to deliver on growth; reiterate Buy

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06 Aug 2026 12:26:27 ET │ 16 pages

TAB Gida (TABGD.IS)

Continues to deliver on growth; reiterate Buy

CITI'S TAKE

Updating estimates following 2Q26 results: TAB posted +10% ticket

growth and +11% real revenue growth (+13% in 1H26) vs. unchanged FY26

guidance of +8-10%. As we incorporate the 2Q26 beat (2%/4% on

sales/EBITDA), our revenue/EBITDA/EPS forecasts increase by

c.1.5%/1.5%/4% in 2026e. We now expect 44% nominal revenue growth

at a stable 20% EBITDA margin in 2026e (+22%YoY USD$-based

EBITDA), or +9.5% real revenue growth, at the upper end of guidance.

TABGD's shares are down c.13% since the announcement of the TFI

minority share exchange and two sizeable block placements (c.9% of

shares outstanding), but we believe the majority of the technical overhang

is now behind us and expect investor focus to shift back to solid

fundamentals. TAB trades on 7x 2027e P/E (pre-IAS29), a significant

discount to Turkish retail and global QSR peers peers. Our TP moves to

TL345 from TL340; reiterate Buy. More inside.

2Q26 recap — 2Q26 results were solid with revenue growth (ex IAS29) of +46%YoY,

c.2% above our estimates, supported by +10% ticket growth and +29% average

ticket size growth. Real/IAS29 revenue growth came in at +10.6%YoY, c.3pp ahead

of our estimates, bringing 1H26 real growth to +12.8% vs. FY26 guidance of +8-10%.

EBITDA was 4% ahead pre-IAS29, with margin broadly stable YoY at 22.1% (+0.1pp

YoY, +0.4pp vs. CitiE). Reported/IAS29 EBITDA was 2% ahead, while net profit was

7% ahead on IAS29 and 20% ahead pre-IAS29. Delivery orders grew +24%YoY,

digital sales reached 56% of system sales in 1H26, and TAB ended the quarter with

TL9.4bn cash and no financial debt despite TL1.3bn dividends paid.

Buy

Price (06 Aug 26 18:10)

TL252.50

Target price

TL345.00↑

from TL340.00

Expected share price return

36.6%

Expected dividend yield

3.2%

Expected total return

39.8%

Market Cap

TL65,976M

US$1,387M

Maxim NekrasovAC

Earnings call comments — Management sounded confident on achieving FY26

guidance, but cautioned that 2H26 could be tougher in terms of consumer

environment given elevated inflation pressure on consumer purchasing power

and geopolitical uncertainty.

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