Turkey Consumer: Summary of expectations into 2Q26: Demand likely to slow down; defensive names should fare better

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Turkey Consumer: Summary of expectations into 2Q26: Demand likely to slow down; defensive names should fare better

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23 Jul 2026 08:01:43 ET │ 9 pages

Turkey Consumer

Summary of expectations into 2Q26: Demand likely to slow down;

defensive names should fare better

CITI'S TAKE

We caught up with management/IR teams across most of our coverage

prior to 2Q26 and have published detailed previews (see below). Overall,

we see the tone as somewhat cautious with many companies flagging Maxim NekrasovAC

softer consumer demand, particularly in May-June as well as some +44-20-7500-7264

calendar impacts (e.g. Eid fully in 1Q26, late start of school holidays in maxim.nekrasov@citi.com

June). We expect defensive discounters to fare relatively well, forecast

~7%/8% real growth for SOK/BIM with a slightly lower growth for Migros'

supermarkets (5.5%). We see QSR demand holding up for TABGD with

~8% real sales (1Q26: +15%). Domestic beverage volumes likely to to

decline (both soft drinks and beer), though we see upside for CCI's

international growth/margins. In the more discretionary categories like

white goods/electronics, we would expect more pressure, with Arcelik's

sales likely still declining meaningfully; for Hepsiburada we see slowdown

to LSD-MSD YoY% in terms of real growth.

Out top picks into 2Q reporting include discounters (BIM, SOK), CCI (see room for

guidance upgrades) and TABGD (resilient traffic).

Arcelik (July 29) -2Q26 preview (29 July): Expect international sales guidance to be

revised down

Tab Gida (Week of Aug 3, TBC) - Recent correction creates a good entry point, Solid

fundamentals intact; reiterate Buy

Hepsiburada (Aug 6, TBC) - 2Q26 preview: Expect DD order growth, yet real GMV to

slow down on soft consumption