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M

Update

July 31, 2026 05:37 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

LIC Housing Finance Ltd. | Asia Pacific

Kushan Parikh, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS)

From

To

Price Target

Rs460.00

Rs445.00

Bull Case

Rs735.00

Rs710.00

Base Case

Rs460.00

Rs445.00

Bear Case

Rs305.00

Rs295.00

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risks to Price Target / Rating

Risk Reward for LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS) has been

updated

Reason for change

LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS, LICHF IS)

India Financials | India

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Underweight

Attractive

Rs445.00

Rs523.10

Rs598.20-458.90

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)**

Prior EPS (Rs)**

101.66

92.99

89.54

87.50

91.08

92.20

94.97

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

After 1QF27 results, we cut our F28/29 EPS estimates by 3.9%/2.9% on lower NIM

assumptions. Our F27 EPS estimates increase by 3.8% on credit cost reversal seen in

1Q. We raise our projected F26-29 loan CAGR to 4% from 2% previously. We cut our

F28-29 NIM assumptions to average 242bp from 248bp previously. Our F27 NIM

assumption is unchanged, at 244bp. We raise our F27-29 operating cost estimates

by <1% each. We keep F28-29 credit cost assumptions unchanged, at 25bp each. Our

F27 credit cost assumption falls to 11bp, from 22bp previously, mainly on a 20bp

credit cost reversal seen in 1Q (vs MSe credit cost of +22bp).

The earnings cuts in F28-29 drive a 3-3.5% decrease in our scenario values and price

target.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

Research as only a single factor in making their investment

decision.