REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
First-page research excerpt
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M
Update
July 31, 2026 05:37 PM GMT
Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. | Asia Pacific
Kushan Parikh, CFA
Equity Analyst
Risk Reward Update
What’s Changed
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS)
From
To
Price Target
Rs460.00
Rs445.00
Bull Case
Rs735.00
Rs710.00
Base Case
Rs460.00
Rs445.00
Bear Case
Rs305.00
Rs295.00
Updated Components
EPS
Investment Thesis
Bull Base Bear Scenarios
Risks to Price Target / Rating
Risk Reward for LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS) has been
updated
Reason for change
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS, LICHF IS)
India Financials | India
Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)
52-Week Range
Underweight
Attractive
Rs445.00
Rs523.10
Rs598.20-458.90
Fiscal Year Ending
03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e
EPS (Rs)**
Prior EPS (Rs)**
101.66
92.99
89.54
87.50
91.08
92.20
94.97
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
After 1QF27 results, we cut our F28/29 EPS estimates by 3.9%/2.9% on lower NIM
assumptions. Our F27 EPS estimates increase by 3.8% on credit cost reversal seen in
1Q. We raise our projected F26-29 loan CAGR to 4% from 2% previously. We cut our
F28-29 NIM assumptions to average 242bp from 248bp previously. Our F27 NIM
assumption is unchanged, at 244bp. We raise our F27-29 operating cost estimates
by <1% each. We keep F28-29 credit cost assumptions unchanged, at 25bp each. Our
F27 credit cost assumption falls to 11bp, from 22bp previously, mainly on a 20bp
credit cost reversal seen in 1Q (vs MSe credit cost of +22bp).
The earnings cuts in F28-29 drive a 3-3.5% decrease in our scenario values and price
target.
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