REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
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M
Update
July 31, 2026 06:21 PM GMT
Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+
CAR Group Limited | Asia Pacific
Andrew McLeod
Equity Analyst
Risk Reward Update
What’s Changed
CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX)
From
To
Price Target
A$32.00
A$31.50
Base Case
A$32.00
A$31.50
Bear Case
A$12.00
A$13.00
CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX, CAR AU)
Updated Components
Australia Media, Internet and Technology | Australia
EPS
Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)
52-Week Range
Investment Thesis
Bull Base Bear Scenarios
Risk Reward for CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX) has been updated.
Reason for change
What's new? We update our model following recent observations in AU used car
market. A mark-to-market exercise, no change to our fundamental positive view.
Earnings impact? Reflecting some softening in the AU car market (due to macro
Fiscal Year Ending
EPS (A$)**
Prior EPS (A$)**
ModelWare EPS (A$)
Prior ModelWare EPS
(A$)
Overweight
Attractive
A$31.50
A$25.99
A$42.06-21.47
06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e
0.73
1.00
1.07
1.09
1.07
1.09
1.18
1.22
1.18
1.22
1.30
1.35
1.30
1.35
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
factors such as RBA rate hikes and falls in consumer confidence) we lower: i) Dealer
lead volumes by 2% in FY26e and 3% each in FY27-28e, but still forecast LSD
growth; and ii) we now forecast negative Private listing volumes -10% in FY26-28.
The net impact of these changes sees our EPS estimates fall modestly: FY26e EPS
are now A$1.07 (from A$1.09), FY27e are A$1.18 (from A$1.22) and FY28e are A
$1.30 (from A$1.35).
Investment thesis & valuation impact? We remain fundamentally positive. CAR has
a dominant leadership position in AU and continues to execute well in higher growth
international markets. History says CAR will continue to deliver good EPS growth in
a slower market. Keep OW, our new PT is A$31.50/share (was A$32.00) upside of
+21% from current levels.
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companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
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