Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

Update

July 31, 2026 06:21 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MCAR Group Limited | Asia Pacific Andrew McLeod

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Andrew.Mcleod@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1692

What’s Changed

CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX) From To

Price Target A$32.00 A$31.50

Base Case A$32.00 A$31.50

CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX, CAR AU)

Bear Case A$12.00 A$13.00

Updated Components Australia Media, Internet and Technology | Australia

EPS Stock Rating Overweight

Investment Thesis Industry View Attractive

Price target A$31.50

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) A$25.99

52-Week Range A$42.06-21.47

Risk Reward for CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX) has been updated. Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

EPS (A$)** 0.73 1.07 1.18 1.30

Prior EPS (A$)** - 1.09 1.22 1.35

Reason for change

ModelWare EPS (A$) 1.00 1.07 1.18 1.30

Prior ModelWare EPS - 1.09 1.22 1.35

What's new? We update our model following recent observations in AU used car (A$)

market. A mark-to-market exercise, no change to our fundamental positive view. Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

Earnings impact? Reflecting some softening in the AU car market (due to macro **e ==MorganBased onStanleyconsensusResearchmethodologyestimates

factors such as RBA rate hikes and falls in consumer confidence) we lower: i) Dealer

lead volumes by 2% in FY26e and 3% each in FY27-28e, but still forecast LSD

growth; and ii) we now forecast negative Private listing volumes -10% in FY26-28.

The net impact of these changes sees our EPS estimates fall modestly: FY26e EPS

are now A$1.07 (from A$1.09), FY27e are A$1.18 (from A$1.22) and FY28e are A

$1.30 (from A$1.35).

Investment thesis & valuation impact? We remain fundamentally positive. CAR has