Car Parc Model 2 – Electric Dreams to Reality

Research evidence excerpt

Car Parc Model 2 – Electric Dreams to Reality

Foundation

July 28, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Energy, Infrastructure, Utilities, Samantha R Edie

Sustainability | Asia Pacific Equity Analyst

Samantha.Edie@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1671

Rob Koh

Equity AnalystCar Parc Model 2 – Electric Rob.Koh@morganstanley.com +61 3 9256-8932

Maya Blackman

Research AssociateDreams to Reality Maya.Blackman@morganstanley.com +61 2 9775-2213

Australia demand for battery electric vehicles has accelerated,

driven by global fuel price shocks, increased China supply, and

supportive government policy. We see implications for stocks

across auto retail, fleet leasing, fuel retail, transport Australia Utilities & Infrastructure

infrastructure, utilities, recycling and emissions. Asia Pacific

Industry View In-LineM

Key Takeaways

BEV adoption accelerates in 2026 and likely to account for 19% of new car sales

(+10ppt YoY), with hybrids 24% (+3ppt), petrol 31% (-9ppt), diesel 26% (-4ppt).

By 2030, we estimate BEVs at ~40% of new car sales (~11% of Australia's parc,

2.1m vehicles) vs. China 48%, Japan 15%, Korea 24% and US 15%.

Combined with efficiency policy, we see fuel sales declining ~2.3%pa to 2030

(16BL), replaced by electricity demand of ~4TWh (~1.4% of Aus power demand).

Our 2030 BEV parc forecast equates to abatement of ~3MtCO2epa and

avoidance of ~4MTCO2epa from fuel efficiency and the shift to hybrids.

We provide a passenger vehicle parc screen covering 15 impacted stocks with a

combined market capitalization of ~A$120bn.

Evolution accelerates this year's model. Australia has modest policy incentives to

encourage BEV take-up, which we modelled in 2025. This year's fuel cost and fuel