风险回报更新

PDF 第一页内容摘录（原文）

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

July 31, 2026 06:21 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

CAR Group Limited | Asia Pacific

Andrew McLeod

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX)

From

To

Price Target

A$32.00

A$31.50

Base Case

A$32.00

A$31.50

Bear Case

A$12.00

A$13.00

CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX, CAR AU)

Updated Components

Australia Media, Internet and Technology | Australia

EPS

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for CAR Group Limited (CAR.AX) has been updated.

Reason for change

What's new? We update our model following recent observations in AU used car

market. A mark-to-market exercise, no change to our fundamental positive view.

Earnings impact? Reflecting some softening in the AU car market (due to macro

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (A$)**

Prior EPS (A$)**

ModelWare EPS (A$)

Prior ModelWare EPS

(A$)

Overweight

Attractive

A$31.50

A$25.99

A$42.06-21.47

06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

0.73

1.00

1.07

1.09

1.07

1.09

1.18

1.22

1.18

1.22

1.30

1.35

1.30

1.35

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

factors such as RBA rate hikes and falls in consumer confidence) we lower: i) Dealer

lead volumes by 2% in FY26e and 3% each in FY27-28e, but still forecast LSD

growth; and ii) we now forecast negative Private listing volumes -10% in FY26-28.

The net impact of these changes sees our EPS estimates fall modestly: FY26e EPS

are now A$1.07 (from A$1.09), FY27e are A$1.18 (from A$1.22) and FY28e are A

$1.30 (from A$1.35).

Investment thesis & valuation impact? We remain fundamentally positive. CAR has

a dominant leadership position in AU and continues to execute well in higher growth

international markets. History says CAR will continue to deliver good EPS growth in

a slower market. Keep OW, our new PT is A$31.50/share (was A$32.00) upside of

+21% from current levels.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

…