Greatland Resources Ltd. (GGP.AX): Strong FY26 positions balance sheet into growing capex/-ve FCF through projects; Sell on relative valuation

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Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 11:02PM AEST

Greatland Resources Ltd. (GGP.AX)

Strong FY26 positions balance sheet into growing capex/-ve FCF through projects; Sell

on relative valuation

GGP.AX

12m Price Target: A$11.40

Price: A$10.23

Upside: 11.4%

GGP pre-reported Jun-Q gold production/sales of ~79koz/~75koz,

down QoQ, largely on softer head grades (following increased

low-grade stockpile processing) partially offset by stronger mill

throughput (as mining productivity at both the OP/UG improved in

the quarter with record TMM) and continued recovery

outperformance. An AISC of A$2,312/oz was also below GS/VA

Consensus, further supported by sustaining spend timing. As a

result, FY26 production of 329koz was further above the top end of

guidance than prior market expectations, with AISC of A$2,179/oz

supported by copper pricing. GGP finished FY26 with cash of

~A$1,289mn and remains debt free with liquidity of ~A$1,764mn

following execution of A$500mn of corporate debt facilities (of

which A$475mn remains undrawn).

GGP reiterated FY27 group production guidance of 260-300koz

(we remain slightly above), implying a ~15% decline YoY primarily

due to lower expected head grades on a greater proportion of

low-grade stockpile processing, though AISC guidance was lifted to

A$2,900-3,330/oz (prior A$2,750-2,950/oz), which at the

midpoint is ~43% higher YoY (on lower YoY gold and copper

production/sales, increased open pit material movements, lower

by-products, broader inflationary pressures, and increased

sustaining capital), and also higher vs. both prior GSe/VA Consensus

Data. Total FY27 growth capital guidance of ~A$680-770mn

(Telfer growth capex of A$315-335mn, and Havieron

pre-production capex of A$365-435mn following FID in the Q) was

ahead of prior GSe, with exploration/resource development spend

of A$70-80mn also above. GGP confirmed that as growth capex

ramps up through FY27-30E, accounts payable will continue to build

for a positive effect on working capital and FCF, before beginning to

unwind once ramped up opex and capex begin to soften. A

multi-year integrated Telfer-Havieron production outlook

remains expected in FY27 (we expect further drilling results are

…