Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE): First Take: Strong CFPS Beat Driven by Oil Sands Results, Raising Production Guidance; Buy

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Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 7:39AM EDT

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE): First Take: Strong CFPS Beat Driven by Oil

Sands Results, Raising Production Guidance; Buy

CVE reported 2Q26 adjusted CFPS (diluted) of C$2.66, above the GS estimate of

C$2.47 and the company-compiled consensus estimate of C$2.44. We note EPS

(diluted) of C$1.53 was below the GS estimate of C$1.71 and consensus estimate of

C$1.66. Production for the quarter came in at ~970 MBOE/d, above the GS and

consensus estimates of ~967 MBOE/d. Notably, the company made several revisions

to full-year 2026 guidance, including (a) raising total Upstream production to

970-1,010 MBOE/d, (b) decreasing Oil Sands unit operating costs to

C$10.75-C$11.75, (c) decreasing Conventional unit operating costs to

C$10.00-C$10.50, (d) decreasing Asia Pacific unit operating costs to

C$9.50-C$10.00, (e) raising Canadian refining throughput to 110-115 kbd, and (f)

decreasing Canadian refining unit operating costs to C$10.50-C$11.50. Management

highlights shareholder returns of ~C$1.4 bn during the quarter, including ~C$1.0 bn

through share repurchases. In addition, we note net debt fell to ~C$5.4 bn at

quarter-end, positioning the company to return ~75% of excess free funds flow to

shareholders, while maintaining a long-term net debt target of C$4.0 bn. On the

earnings call, we look for commentary around (a) Upstream growth projects, (b)

refining margin capture, (c) shareholder returns, (d) debt reduction, and (e)

light-heavy crude differentials. Please see within for further details.

Neil Mehta

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Lydia Gould

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Josiah Knight

+1(212)357-9806 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Comparison vs. the GS Model

Overall. Overall, adjusted CFPS (diluted) of C$2.66 was above the GS estimate of

C$2.47 and the company-compiled consensus estimate of C$2.44. EPS (diluted) of

C$1.53 was below the GS estimate of C$1.71 and company-compiled consensus

estimate of C$1.66.

Upstream. CVE’s Upstream operating margin of ~C$4,915 mn was above GS

expectations of C$4,605 mn, driven particularly by stronger Oil Sands results.

Production was ~970 MBOE/d, above the GS estimate. Realized pricing was generally

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