Shionogi (4507.T): GSK read-across: Progress in HIV business to boost expectations for LA products; maintain Buy

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Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 9:32PM JST

Shionogi (4507.T): GSK read-across: Progress in HIV business to boost

expectations for LA products; maintain Buy

GSK (covered by Europe pharmaceuticals analyst Rajan Sharma) announced 2Q26

results and its medium- to long-term business strategy on July 28 (link). We note the

following about the integrase inhibitors (INSTI) out-licensed by Shionogi. (1)

Long-acting (LA) formulations containing cabotegravir (CAB), launched as Cabenuva

(treatment) and Apretude (prevention), both beat GSe/company-compiled

consensus. (2) The company disclosed the development outlook and patent expiry

timelines for a once-every-four-months (three times a year) formulation of CAB for

treatment and for S-365598(GSK development code: VH-184).

Akinori Ueda, Ph.D.

+81(3)4587-9910 |

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

Tomo Taniguchi

+81(3)4587-1071 |

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

In addition to (1) the strong sales trends for existing LA formulations, (2) GSK also

confirmed steady development progress in line with previous plans and patent expiry

timelines for next-generation products. We take a positive view of this as a favorable

development that improves the medium- to long-term earnings outlook for

Shionogi’s core HIV franchise. We maintain our Buy rating.

Key points from GSK

Key points from GSK’s briefing on its HIV business, in terms of the read-across for

Shionogi, are as follows. See the linked report for our European team’s views.

n

2Q progress: 2Q sales for the HIV franchise were as follows. Dovato: £749 mn

(+1% vs. GSe/+0% vs. company-compiled consensus); Tivicay/Triumeq: £522 mn

(+3%/+3%); Cabenuva: £453 mn (+5%/+4%); Apretude: £140 mn (+0%/+5%).

The 2026 outlook for the HIV business was revised from yoy growth in the midto high-single digits (%) to growth in the high-single digits (%).

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CAB development progress: For Cabenuva (dosed 6 times per year), GSK said it

has obtained (1) favorable data regarding long-term administration (over 5

years) and (2) trial results showing the drug contributes to improved adherence

compared to oral drugs. GSK expects patent protection for the drug until 2040.

…