Vault Minerals (VAU.AX): 4Q26 in-line; Minor revisions to 3yr production outlook

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Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 11:42PM AEST

Vault Minerals (VAU.AX): 4Q26 in-line; Minor revisions to 3yr production

outlook

VAU pre-reported group Jun-Q gold production of ~89koz, up ~14% QoQ, driven

by quarterly production growth across all assets. AISC of ~A$2,968/oz was more

in-line with broader market expectations, supported by sustaining spend timing. As a

result, group FY26 production of ~337koz was within guidance (332-360koz), with

AISC of ~A$2,924/oz broadly in-line with market expectations, albeit above the

top-end of guidance (A$2,650-2,850/oz). VAU finished FY26 with cash and bullion of

~A$842mn with no debt. Following the early close out of the remaining 1Q FY27

hedges during the quarter, underlying free cash flow generation was ~A$219mn

(excl. ~A$74mn deployed via the buyback and dividends).

Hugo Nicolaci

+61(2)9321-8323 |

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Paul Young

+61(2)9321-8302 |

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Marcus Dosanjh

+61(2)9321-8780 |

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

VAU released a refreshed 3-year production outlook to FY29, guiding FY27

group production of 355-375koz (modestly below prior GSe/Visible Alpha

Consensus Data and the prior 3-year outlook of ~360-390koz) largely on softer

production at Leonora (GSe revised to 363koz on slightly more gradual UG ramp-up

expectations), with AISC guidance of A$3,150-3,350/oz largely in-line. Guided

FY27 growth capex of A$339mn was higher vs. prior market expectations, largely

reflecting increased capital investment at Leonora associated with the completion of

the KoTH plant upgrade and the transition of open pit load and haul operations to an

owner operator model from the start of CY27. VAU expects production to grow to

~380-400koz in FY28 (prior outlook ~370-400koz) before declining to

~355-375koz in FY29. We sit broadly above guidance in FY28-29E, with more

conservative Sugar Zone timing assumptions offset by mine-life extensions at

Rothsay and Daisy. Our forecasts are broadly in line with Visible Alpha Consensus for

FY28, though ahead in FY29.

On aggregate, our VAU NAV increases ~1% with softer costs offsetting minor

production changes.

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