HudBay Minerals Inc. (HBM.TO): In Line 2Q26; Better Outlook And Many Catalysts For 2H26

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Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 11:40AM BRT

HudBay Minerals Inc. (HBM.TO)

In Line 2Q26; Better Outlook And Many Catalysts For 2H26

HBM.TO

12m Price Target: C$37.00

Price: C$30.76

Upside: 20.3%

HudBay Minerals’ 2Q26 reported EBITDA of $321M (-24% q/q;

+31% y/y) was in line with GS/ VA consensus. Copper production

was the highlight of the quarter, while sales volumes lagged a bit

across most assets. HBM revised its cost guidance downward (by

products and operating efficiency).

Despite the quarter being marked by some operational/logistics

challenges, with the hoist gearbox failure in Manitoba and the ocean

swell causing shipments delay in Peru, the company was able to

deliver solid results, with both copper and gold production on track

to deliver the guidance on a consolidated basis. On top of that, the

company revised its cost guidance downwards, from negative

$0.10-0.30/lb to negative $0.25-0.45/lb, with costs tracking well

below the previous guidance on the back of strong by-products

credits and operating efficiencies, more than offsetting short-term

pressures from input costs (e.g. fuel).

Additionally, the company also announced some incremental capex

for 2026, with additional $30M related to the development of New

Ingerbelle infrastructure, and additional $30M related to the

advance of the PFS, site de-risk and exploration activities and other

ongoing site costs for Cactus. The company also expects additional

$20M in expenses related to the Mason project during 2026, with

the PFS expected for 2H27.

BUY

Marcio Farid

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Emerson Vieira

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Henrique Marques

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Key Data _____________________________________

Market cap: C$12.3bn / $8.7bn

Enterprise value: C$12.4bn / $8.8bn

3m ADTV: C$78.1mn / $56.0mn

Canada

Latin America Basic Materials

M&A Rank: 3

GS Forecast __________________________________

12/25

12/26E

12/27E

12/28E

Revenue ($ mn)

2,211.0

2,909.6

3,264.6

3,359.4

EBITDA ($ mn)

1,356.2

1,508.4

1,897.0

1,975.1

EBIT ($ mn)

916.5

1,099.7

1,464.5

1,551.0

EPS ($)

1.39

1.55

2.05

2.56

P/E (X)

8.1

14.1

10.6

8.5

EV/EBITDA (X)

3.6

5.8

4.1

3.4

FCF yield (%)

4.7

5.1

10.6

12.9

…