Advantest (6857.T): Earnings Review: Above expectations; very positive, including mention of further expediting production capacity increase; maintain Neutral but raise TP, expect share price rebound

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Equity Research

29 July 2026 | 9:32PM JST

Advantest (6857.T)

Earnings Review: Above expectations; very positive, including mention of further

expediting production capacity increase; maintain Neutral but raise TP, expect share

price rebound

6857.T

12m Price Target: ¥40,000

Price: ¥24,915

Upside: 60.5%

NEUTRAL

Shuhei Nakamura

1Q results, full-year guidance stronger than expected

1Q operating profits of ¥190 bn, reported after the July 29 close,

beat our estimate of ¥152 bn and the Bloomberg consensus of a

little under ¥160 bn. Advantest revised up FY3/27 operating profit

guidance to ¥846 bn from initial guidance of ¥627.5 bn, well above

our prior estimate of ¥751.4 bn and the Bloomberg consensus of a

little under ¥710 bn. While trade statistics from various countries

likely made the stock market aware of the possibility that 1Q

progress could be slightly better than management’s assumptions,

expectations for a large beat were unlikely to have been high, as

recent GPU test times have not changed substantially. As such, we

believe this came as an overall positive surprise.

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

Kaho Otake

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

Key Data _____________________________________

Market cap: ¥18.3tr / $111.6bn

Enterprise value: ¥17.8tr / $108.7bn

3m ADTV: ¥253.1bn / $1.6bn

Japan

Japan Semiconductor, SPE & Precision

M&A Rank: 3

Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No

GS Forecast __________________________________

Revenue (¥ bn)

3/26

3/27E

3/28E

3/29E

1,128.6

1,788.5

2,116.1

2,281.9

Key points from the results briefing

Op. profit (¥ bn) New

499.1

904.0

1,076.5

1,124.0

Op. profit (¥ bn) Old

499.1

751.4

943.5

985.2

(1) TAM outlook: Advantest raised its CY26 TAM outlook versus its

April forecast for SoC testers by US$1.9 bn, and for memory testers

by US$0.3 bn (both based on the midpoint of the range). The

primary driver of the revision is chip volumes mainly for inference

AI-oriented ASICs, CPUs, and DRAM tracking above expectations.

The company noted that while CPU test times are on par with or

slightly longer than for GPUs/ASICs in wafer testing, they are

somewhat shorter in package testing.

Op. profit CoE (¥ bn)

846.0

EPS (¥) New

517.4

962.0

1,112.7

1,162.3

…