Kirby (KEX.N): KEX 2Q/Callback Takes: Guide raise on incremental step-up in VZ/ME tailwinds outlook; Buy-side bull case $9+ ‘27 EPS

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kirby (KEX.N): KEX 2Q/Callback Takes: Guide raise on incremental step-up in VZ/ME tailwinds outlook; Buy-side bull case $9+ ‘27 EPS

Kirby (KEX.N)

30 July 2026 Citi Research

OEM capacity should expand at a ~+15% CAGR over the next five years, in-line

with KEX’s Power Gen revenue outlook of +10-20% y-y.

Drivers: On a force rank, we would place higher-than-expected and growing VZ

heavy crude imports at the top, driving more refiner production of byproducts such

as benzene and other “enes” that lift industry rate for KEX. Next, we would place

wider-than-expected, sustained-for-longer crack spreads, which have the same

impact as VZ imports in incentivizing refiners to produce more benzene and other

byproducts that raise industry rate for KEX. Following that, we see elevated US

exports of petrochemicals as next-in-line. Exports have not stepped-up as much

as initially expected given China has been able to source feedstocks from outside

the Middle East, but petrochemical exports are in a much stronger position than

last year and the last four years. This enables easier customer negotiations for KEX.

We do not see the Calcasieu Lock closure having driven any material impact in 2Q

and into 3Q yet, as barge queues have not risen to the 100+ in a previous instance.

We expect more pronounced impact driving industry rate for KEX any week now

and lasting through 3Q. However, once the Lock reopens, its lift on rate should

normalize. Additionally, we do not see much Lock tailwind embedded in the guide,

as likely queues may not reach as high as the 100+ as before.

Path to Peak: There is the notion that mgmt. stepped back its peak Inland margin

trajectory to the ~5yrs mentioned on the earnings call. We did not see mgmt. that