Kirby (KEX.N): KEX 2Q Preview: We see mispricing on ME resolution sentiment, with strength from VZ imports/Calcasieu Lock closure

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kirby (KEX.N): KEX 2Q Preview: We see mispricing on ME resolution sentiment, with strength from VZ imports/Calcasieu Lock closure

Kirby (KEX.N)

10 July 2026 Citi Research

Key Drivers & Key Debates

Key 2Q puts and takes: We see 2Q having played out generally in-line with

management’s expectations. Venezuela crude oil imports that benefited 1Q

(increasing heavier crude for US refiners to crack more refined byproduct beyond

the base gasoline such as benzenes, which are higher margin for KEX to haul)

stepped up in 2Q, providing further momentum. Meanwhile, we see Middle East

disruption driving US petrochemicals exports likely having been less impactful on

KEX than the influx of VZ oil, while the 2Q headwinds the company anticipated—

fuel rebill lag on Inland, planned shipyards on Coastal, OEM delays on Power Gen—

have likely proven out.

Figure 1. Venezuela crude imports have stepped up in 2Q from 1Q, a positive

read for KEX (increasing heavier crude for US refiners to crack more refined

byproduct beyond the base gasoline such as benzenes, which are higher-

margin for KEX to haul)

US Crude Imports (weekly, '000 barrels per day)

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

2024 2025 2026

Canada Mexico Venezuela

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg

We note crack spreads were already fairly strong even prior to the Iran conflict, with

US refining companies already performing near capacity levels pre-conflict. US

petrochemical exports stepped up in 2Q on the destruction of gas fields in the

Middle East and reduction of feedstock for China, and there likely have been some

structural changes that can benefit KEX’s customers longer term.