Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O): 2Q26E Fundamentals Likely on Track; ST Volatility Ahead but LT Intact

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Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O): 2Q26E Fundamentals Likely on Track; ST Volatility Ahead but LT Intact

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29 Jul 2026 13:16:23 ET │ 15 pages

Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O)

2Q26E Fundamentals Likely on Track; ST Volatility Ahead but LT Intact

CITI'S TAKE

TCOM could report 2Q26 results ~end-Aug, and we expect revs and adj. OP,

excluding investigation impact, likely in line with VA consensus. Following

the investigation conclusion, TCOM is rolling out the new traffic distribution Buy

and commission mechanism, but it might take time to migrate to the new Price (28 Jul 26 16:00) US$45.31

system and for hotel operators to get familiar with it, resulting in an ST

impact from the removal of special and golden hotels. Domestic and Target price US$62.00↓

outbound travel demand has looked unexciting during the summer break from US$64.00

given the poor weather and oil price impact, which could drag 3Q26E Expected share price return 36.8%performance. We cut 2026/27/28E earnings by 6/5/3% to reflect weaker-

than-expected travel demand and the return on hotels’ deposits with TP Expected dividend yield 0.7%

lowered to US$62 from US$64. Despite ST pressure on 2H26E earnings, we Expected total return 37.5%

remain positive since TCOM should be able to recover monetization Market Cap US$29,615Mcapabilities through new traffic distribution mechanisms such as ads over

medium term. Maintain Buy.

2Q26E preview — We project revs to grow 4.6% yoy to Rmb15.55bn, below VA

Price Performanceconsensus of 15.6bn since we have factored in the return of hotels’ deposits of

Rmb122mn, driven by +9/-3/+11/+14/+6% yoy on hotel/transportation/packaged (RIC: TCOM.O, BB: TCOM US)

tour/corporate travel/others. GPM is projected 79.9% vs. 81% a year ago, while adj.

OPM is projected at 26.6% vs.