Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O): Oil Price and Policy Impact to Drag Q2‘26E Performance

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Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O): Oil Price and Policy Impact to Drag Q2‘26E Performance

Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O)

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Comment on 2Q26E outlook

For 2Q26, TCOM expect net revenue growth of approximately 3% to 8% yoy, with

growth moderated from the exceptional strong 1Q results due to a combination of

macro and operational factors.

For China business, air travel demand has softened vs. Q1 as higher airfares are

influencing travel behaviors. Consumers are increasingly optimizing destinations,

trip plans and transportation choices. Domestic hotel ADR has also turned

modestly positive yoy, reflecting resilient lodging demand and a more balanced

supply-demand environment.

Additionally, management highlighted its Q2 guidance also includes the near-term

impact of our proactive product and compliance-related adjustments across

certain business lines in response to evolving compliance frameworks. These

introduce some sequential normalization to their financials.

Regarding international business, higher airfare has reduced demand for certain

long-haul routes. However, part of the volume impact is offset by higher ticketing

price. On the hotel side, international accommodation demand remained healthy,

supported in part by local demand and short-haul travel flows. Inbound travel

continued to be one of TCOM’s strongest segment, driven by Asia source markets,

favorable visa policy, improved connectivity, and growing recognition of China as a

destination.

Looking forward into 2H26, management expects a limited visibility given the short

booking window. Management will maintain a prudent outlook given existing

dynamics to persist with periodic fluctuations across specific markets and travel

segments. To navigate this uneven landscape, management will stay focused on