Admiral Group (ADML.L): Boiling the Frog – Upgrade to Buy

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Admiral Group (ADML.L): Boiling the Frog – Upgrade to Buy

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28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 25 pages

Admiral Group (ADML.L)

Boiling the Frog – Upgrade to Buy

CITI'S TAKE

Admiral’s co-Founder Henry Engelhardt famously commented that the

2006 UK motor insurance market was like a frog boiling slowly – nothing Buy ↑ from Neutral

overly dramatic but results were getting steadily worse (no frogs were

harmed at the time). We see something similar now and expect real rate to Catalyst Watch: Upside

compound from 2H with Admiral leading the way. Admiral has drip-fed Price (24 Jul 26 16:30) £35.88

small real rate increases in early 2026 that if sustained make consensus Target price £42.43↑estimates look far too cautious in our view. Our EPS estimates are now 15-

17% ahead of consensus in 2027/28. We upgrade our recommendation to from £32.77

Buy and open a positive Catalyst Watch. Expected share price return 18.3%

Expected dividend yield 4.9%

We are 15-17% above consensus EPS for 2027/28 — We are raising our EPS again

Expected total return 23.2%by 8% and 6% in 2027/28E respectively. We are now 15-17% above consensus. This

is driven by UK Motor where Admiral’s early drip feed of rate in 2026 supports a Market Cap £10,990M

materially better UK Motor COR than expected. If this is sustained, then the FY 2026 US$14,643M

Loss Pick could prove conservative even on our estimates. Admiral has shown before

that rate increases are best implemented gradually. TP increased to £42.43.

2026 is tale of two halves — We know that Admiral put through ~60bps of real rate

increase in Jan and Feb. If sustained through 1H, then our FY ’26 82% Underwriting Price Performance

Year Booked Loss Ratio (BLR) estimate could prove conservative. 1H ’26 will likely (RIC: ADML.L, BB: ADM LN)