Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Admiral Group Plc (ADML.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Combined ratio (UK Motor) (%) 75.0 76.0 76.3 76.1

Combined ratio (UK Home) (%) 84.1 84.8 84.6 84.4

Combined ratio (Europe) (%) 94.5 94.6 94.1 93.6

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Factor rotation RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Rate changes in UK motor Successful penetration into international 164.7 Claims inflation in UK motor markets and adjacent lines of business (e.g. DPS

Growth in policy count and progress Admiral Money) (p) 163.0 258.3

on improving underwriting in international Significant motor rate hardening 197.5

markets Slowdown of AV disruption narrative e.g.

regulatory roadblocks in UK 770

Net income

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (£, mn) 665 863

Early impact of disruptive threats to the UK

0-10% North America motor market, e.g. autonomous vehicles

10-20% Europe ex UK Intensified competition in the UK motor market 253.4 EPS

80-90% UK and rate softening 184.9 287.0 (p)

Accelerating AV disruption narrative 254.2

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Inst. Owners, % Active 70.4%

MS ALPHA MODELS

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x

1/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 18.6%

MOST Horizon

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Quintile trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a