PTC Inc (PTC.O): Expecting Uneventful Q3; Reseller Survey More Cautious

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PTC Inc (PTC.O): Expecting Uneventful Q3; Reseller Survey More Cautious

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22 Jul 2026 18:35:25 ET │ 20 pages

PTC Inc (PTC.O)

Expecting Uneventful Q3; Reseller Survey More Cautious

CITI'S TAKE

We expect more of an uneventful Q3 print with softer reseller checks

suggesting limited room for a beat/raise and ongoing competitive concerns

from AI CAD tools. While we came away incrementally positive from the PTC

NEXT conference in Chicago, which highlighted embedded AI features and Neutral

new product innovation, partner commentary expressed more skepticism Price (22 Jul 26 16:00) US$113.11on PTC’s product execution. Our reseller survey featured quota level

achievements remaining under pressure and NTM growth expectations Target price US$127.00↓

moderating. We are expecting straight-forward Q3 results with ARR/FCF from US$155.00

expectations in line with guidance and no raise to full-year guidance. We

anticipate Q4 will be a more meaningful print, with investors focused on a Expected share price return 12.3%

growth re-acceleration story and any early signs of AI demand. We leave our Expected dividend yield 0.0%

estimates unchanged and our update regression, which has seen software Expected total return 12.3%

multiple compression, moves our TP to $127 from $155, implying 19x FY27

EV/FCF (ex-sbc). Market Cap US$13,065M

Growth Moderates and Quota Achievement Remain Weak in Survey Results —

Our reseller survey (N=24), conducted with the Innovation Lab, saw weaker growth

trends, with NTM growth declining 2 pts and current Q growth coming in 4 pts below Price Performance

previous expectations. Quota level achievements remained disappointing with only (RIC: PTC.O, BB: PTC US)

29% of resellers expecting to hit their quota accelerator (vs. 25% last survey).