2Q26E: Challenges persist, few bright spots

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2Q26E: Challenges persist, few bright spots

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Latin America Retail & eCommerce

2Q26E: Challenges persist, few bright

spots

Price Objective Change

Consumption backdrop generally remains weak 20 July 2026

Debt service and gambling are cutting into Brazilian disposable income as Mexican job Equity

growth remains sluggish and remittances decline in MXN. Brazilian consumption appears Latin America

particularly weak in the northeast, as indebtedness further restricts discretionary Retail & eCommerce

spending and gambling accelerates into World Cup.

Robert E. Ford Aguilar, CFA

Research AnalystSoft Mexican demand favors TBBB and OXXO values BofAS

Weak professional and export sales may obscure solid KIMBER consumer products, as +1 646 855 5439

MXN supports gross margin. Liverpool sales appear likely to strengthen but Suburbia robert.e.ford@bofa.com

looks weak and credit reserves could rise; strong EPS growth may come from an easy MelissaResearchByun,AnalystCFA

comp and Nordstrom. ALSEA’s Mexico SSS growth may slow, despite World Cup traffic, BofAS

+1 646 855 3177

as translation masks Spanish strength. TBBB could accelerate same stores and post melissa.byun@bofa.com

operating leverage as consumers seek value and new ready-to-eat SKUs resonate. New Wellington Santana >>

WALMEX EDLP pricing could take time to garner share, introducing margin and expense Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

risk. FEMSA’s OXXO appears likely to further accelerate SSS on World Cup demand, +55 11 2188 4117

packaging and pricing efforts. CHDRAUI faces greater weakness in Southeast Mexico wellington.santana@bofa.com

and a cautious US consumer, though efficiencies should mitigate pressures. Trimming

EPS and PO from Ps115 to Ps105.

NPV: net present value