US Leisure: Theme Parks – Muted Trends Given Easy Q2 Comps

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US Leisure: Theme Parks – Muted Trends Given Easy Q2 Comps

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09 Jul 2026 07:15:11 ET │ 25 pages

US Leisure

Theme Parks – Muted Trends Given Easy Q2 Comps

CITI'S TAKE

Leisure

Based on our most recent round of theme park foot traffic, weather, and

pricing analysis, we estimate that 2Q26 did not see the boost that we would James Hardiman AC

have anticipated given easy comparisons, especially for FUN, with respect +1-212-816-4035

to rainfall and runaway spending. Our 2Q estimates are down for both james.hardiman@citi.com

companies (slightly ahead of the Street for FUN and slightly behind for

PRKS). Beyond 2Q, we are much less confident in the underlying strength in Sean Wagner

fundamentals as we lap more reasonable weather and attendance trends in +1-212-519-8834

3Q (with extreme heat to start July) and we continue to have questions sean.wagner@citi.com

about the theme park consumer.

For FUN, our 2Q26 EBITDA estimate is down $15M to $283M, although this is still

$4M ahead of the Street’s (VA) $279M and $40M ahead of last year’s $243M

(although this was an unmitigated disappointment at the time). While our initial

2Q attendance estimate assumed a 1% decline based on a 5% headwind from the

sale of 7 parks and roughly 4% organic growth on an easy comparison, we are now

assuming just 2% organic growth and a 3% reported attendance decline as weather

was not as favorable as we had hoped and demand continues to be muted.

Our 2Q26 PRKS EBITDA estimate is down $5M to $194M, now slightly below the

Street’s $196M. Similarly, our 2Q attendance estimate of a 1% decline is down from

our previous flat estimate, as a weaker end to the quarter was worse than we would

have expected given the easier (albeit not as easy as FUN) comps in June.