Strategy 3Q: Demand Focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Strategy 3Q: Demand Focus

we see RIOSFR UWEW UWEW 149.0017.35 AUDAUD 171.5016.00 AUDAUD -13%8% -11%-6%

stockpiles as strategic and downside capped with tariffs potentially pushing COMEX FMGDRR UWUW OWUW 17.253.95AUD 18.854.45AUD -11%-8% -12%-6%

MIN ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++

copper back to ~US$6.85/lb. BHP (OW; OOP #1) is our key thematic play, with Note: Priced as of close July 7 2026.

>50% of EBITDA from copper. In aluminium, restarts, stronger China output, and Source:Price Target,Refinitiv,or EstimatesMorgan Stanleyfor thisResearchcompany estimates.have been ++removedStock Rating,from

Indonesian growth should loosen balances, although low inventories and restocking considerationStanley policy, inMorganthis reportStanleybecause,may beunderprecludedapplicablefromlawissuingand/orsuchMorgan

risk offer support; commodity momentum likely flattens from here. RIO moves to information with respect to this company at this time.

UW (OOP #11) on aluminium and potential merger-talk revival post August 5, 2026.

SFR to EW from UW, with the stock now within ~5% of our PT.

Lithium – Still cautious, but valuations have retreated: Since April 14, PLS and

IGO are down 16% and 11%, respectively, vs. ~5% for the ASX200 Materials index.

Near-term risks remain from the CATL mine restart and suspended supply returning,

although tightness should support lithium this quarter; longer term, sodium-ion and

supply additions likely weigh on the medium-term outlook. Upgrade IGO to EW

from UW, now trading in line with our valuation. PLS still preferred but stays EW.

Rare earths – Minimum-price stability; Mineral Sands – Higher prices despite

dismal demand: Despite the sell-off and profit taking, rare earth stocks retain a

strong anchor from minimum price guarantees.