Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Aurubis- AurubisAG (NAFG.DE)AG (NAFG.DE)

Strong earnings momentum priced in

PRICE TARGET €177.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

We derive our price target using a simple average of EV/EBITDA (over 2026-28) and P/NAV, ▪Aurubis continues to see strong earnings

averaging both our base case and spot assumptions, to account for the current environment momentum amid high precious metals

of elevated metal prices. We use a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x, in line with the stock's prices, strong copper demand, sulphuric acid

long-term average to account for the typical cyclicality. Meanwhile, we set our target P/NPV supply disruptions and recovering recycling

multiple at 1.0x, derived by applying an ~8.0% WACC and 2% terminal growth rate. RCs. This already appears well reflected in

consensus expectations. €172.80 ▪Aurubis is well positioned as aConsensus Price Target Distribution €110.00 €220.00 European/US-based multi-metal producer MS PT

and recycler to benefit from a shifting macroSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

framework, characterised by supply chain

fragmentation and strategic inventories.

That said, we see this as captured in current

RISK REWARD CHART valuation levels, given EV/EBITDA already

sits 80% above historical average levels.

€238.00€238.00(+38.53%)€238.00(+38.53%)(+38.53%) ▪The shares trade broadly in line with base EUR

metal peers on EV/EBITDA, while near-term

FCFY/ROCE continues to lag given ongoing

200 investments.

€171.80€171.80€171.80 €177.00€177.00(+3.03%)€177.00(+3.03%)(+3.03%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

25% Overweight

50% Equal-weight

100 25% Underweight

MS Rating

50 €66.00€66.00(-61.58%)€66.00(-61.58%)(-61.58%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research