Synchronicity to Idiosyncrasy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Synchronicity to Idiosyncrasy

ty improves, M&A could also re-emerge as a catalyst for a growing

returns

performance disparity.

SXPP P/B vs RoE (1Yr Fwd)

2.00

Copper: still playing selective. Copper’s structural narrative remains intact - 1.80 P/B

electrification, grid investment, AI-related power demand and resource security - but 1.60 3 July 2026

stretched valuations and crowded positioning suggest much of the scarcity premium 1.40

1.20

is already reflected in share prices. We therefore favour equities that are supported 1.00

by catalysts and valuation. Among diversified miners, Glencore offers compelling 0.80

risk-reward through copper optionality and SotP re-rating potential with shares 0.60 RoE

0.40

trading on a spot 2027 FCFY of 11%. Among pure plays, First Quantum is our new 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Top Pick, with a catalyst-rich route to an eventual Cobre Panama restart, a stronger Source: Visible Alpha consensus, Morgan Stanley Research. EV includes:

Antofagasta, Aurubis, Befesa, Boliden, Endeavour Mining, First Quantum,

balance sheet and an underappreciated production growth profile. We neutralize Fresnillo, Glencore, KGHM, Lundin Mining, Metlen, Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto

KGHM (from OW) as the growth pivot into M&A and polyhalite may heighten

concerns around capital allocation and value leakage, likely weighing on its multiple See Exhibit 12 for detail on our price target

re-rating prospects. changes, reflecting our commodities team latest

price outlook: The Price Deck - 3Q26: MicroAluminium loses the setup; iron ore loses support. Aluminium has moved from

Narratives, But Macro Mattersscarcity premium to supply-response risk. Regionalisation is still relevant, but

Middle East restarts, rapid Indonesian growth and greenfield additions point to a