Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Antofagasta (ANTO.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Copper Sales (kt) 666 645 727 809 13 Aug 2026 Half Year 2026 Antofagasta PLC Earnings Release

Copper Price (US$/lb) 4.93 6.25 5.86 5.68 15 Oct 2026 Q3 2026 Antofagasta PLC Production Report

Net Cash Cost (US$/lb) 1.19 1.19 1.08 1.01

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Copper price, cash costs and production RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

volumes Better operating performance and unit costs 7,143 Capex reductions at projects China growing faster than our base case EBITDA

Reserve and resource upgrades expectation, resulting in higher commodity (US$, mn) 3,762 7,427

6,442 prices

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

2,118

0-10% North America Operational disappointments, higher operating Net income 1,208 2,394

0-10% UK costs (US$, mn) 1,811

10-20% Europe ex UK Rising capital intensity

10-20% Latin America

10-20% Mainland China 2.15 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 1.37 3.08 20-30% China and India (US$) Inst. Owners, % Active 72.1% 1.86

20-30% Japan

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 1.07

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1% DPS 0.43 1.08

(US$)

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund 0.78

MS ALPHA MODELS exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

5/5 3 Month exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MOST Horizon particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /