Revising FY26 industrial absorption estimate higher, while LMI pricing shows potential inflection point

研报英文原文证据摘录

Revising FY26 industrial absorption estimate higher, while LMI pricing shows potential inflection point

Equity Research

6 July 2026 | 4:18PM EDT

AMERICAS REAL ESTATE: REITS

Revising FY26 industrial absorption estimate higher, while LMI pricing

shows potential inflection point

Investors remain focused on industrial demand and supply, wondering when demand Caitlin Burrows

+1(212)902-4736 |

can outweigh new supply creating market rent growth, and whether that will prompt caitlin.burrows@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

more development starts. As a result, we review:

Jeremy Kuhl

+1(212)357-1704 | jeremy.kuhl@gs.com

n Industrial demand indicators (LMI Pricing) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Shailee Lnun GS industrial absorption forecast based on updated inputs from the GS Macro +1(332)245-7913 |

and Internet teams shailee.x.lnu@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

Slater, CFAn Recent trends related to subleasing Harrison | +1(212)902-7428

harrison.slater@gs.com

n New supply and transaction volume Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

While we expect 2026 demand/absorption will increase y/y and new supply will

decrease, our 2026 absorption estimate (195mn SF, from 138mn SF previously)

remains below the 2026 Costar supply estimate (232mn sq ft). As a result, we believe

broad based market rent growth will be limited in 2026. That said, LMI Pricing data

does suggest we are reaching a potential inflection point in absorption.

Related event: On July 7th, we are hosting a virtual meeting with management from

Elion Partners to discuss the Industrial Real Estate market. Reach out for details.

Demand: reviewing industrial absorption and its indicators

In this section, we review current demand indicators (LMI Pricing), trends

(absorption, subleasing) and our industrial demand forecast.