Super Retail Group (SUL.AX): FY26 results preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

Equity Research

10 August 2026 | 3:58PM AEST

Super Retail Group (SUL.AX)

FY26 results preview

SUL.AX

12m Price Target: A$15.60

Price: A$13.58

Upside: 14.9%

We preview our expectations ahead of FY26 results on 20th of

August. Key points.

n

We expect a largely in-line result, with FY26 EBIT ~-1% vs.

Visible Alpha Consensus Data. The absence of a trading

update alongside the June strategy day suggests limited risk of a

FY26 earnings surprise in our view.

FY27 cost outlook de-risked, in our view, given the EA

agreement. FY27 is the final year of SUL’s 2024 EA, locking in

3.25% wage growth rate. This is favourable versus the 4.75%

minimum wage increase, thereby de-risking cost surprise.

Additionally, higher Corporate costs (/investment) already

flagged at recent strategy day (link).

Focus to be on 7-week trading update: We think consensus is

expecting group LFL growth of ~+1.3% for the first 7 weeks,

comprising ~+1.3% SCA, ~+2.75% rebel, ~+2.7% Macpac, and

~-1.0% BCF.

n

GS/Consensus expect +20 stores in FY27.

n

SUL is cheap relative to its peers trading at ~10% premium to

10yr avg NTM PE vs NCK +~40% premium, JBH +~30%, WES

+~40%. We do not expect material capital mgmt

announcements (existing 55-65% payout ratio) given 1) $30m

inventory investment (link) 2) increased capital investment in the

ignite program (link), the benefits of which are back end

weighted.

n

We make modest adjustment of -2% to +1% to our FY26-28E

EBIT forecasts, reflecting lower gross margins and higher

revenue. Consequently, our 12m target price (TP) increases

from $15.4 to $15.6.

BUY

James Leigh, CFA

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Peter Marks

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Rayanne Haidar

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Key Data _____________________________________

Market cap: A$3.1bn / $2.2bn

Enterprise value: A$4.3bn / $3.0bn

3m ADTV: A$5.8mn / $4.1mn

Australia

ANZ Consumer

M&A Rank: 3

Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes

GS Forecast __________________________________

6/25

6/26E

6/27E

6/28E

Revenue (A$ mn) New

4,074.9

4,193.1

4,374.5

4,641.3

Revenue (A$ mn) Old

4,074.9

4,186.8

4,362.2

4,628.2

EBITDA (A$ mn)

754.7

734.3

780.7

840.9

EPS (A$) New

1.02

0.88

0.96

1.08

EPS (A$) Old

1.02

0.90

0.95

…