Revising FY26 industrial absorption estimate higher, while LMI pricing shows potential inflection point

Research evidence excerpt

Revising FY26 industrial absorption estimate higher, while LMI pricing shows potential inflection point

Equity Research

6 July 2026 | 4:18PM EDT

AMERICAS REAL ESTATE: REITS

Revising FY26 industrial absorption estimate higher, while LMI pricing

shows potential inflection point

Investors remain focused on industrial demand and supply, wondering when demand Caitlin Burrows

+1(212)902-4736 |

can outweigh new supply creating market rent growth, and whether that will prompt caitlin.burrows@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

more development starts. As a result, we review:

Jeremy Kuhl

+1(212)357-1704 | jeremy.kuhl@gs.com

n Industrial demand indicators (LMI Pricing) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Shailee Lnun GS industrial absorption forecast based on updated inputs from the GS Macro +1(332)245-7913 |

and Internet teams shailee.x.lnu@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

Slater, CFAn Recent trends related to subleasing Harrison | +1(212)902-7428

harrison.slater@gs.com

n New supply and transaction volume Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

While we expect 2026 demand/absorption will increase y/y and new supply will

decrease, our 2026 absorption estimate (195mn SF, from 138mn SF previously)

remains below the 2026 Costar supply estimate (232mn sq ft). As a result, we believe

broad based market rent growth will be limited in 2026. That said, LMI Pricing data

does suggest we are reaching a potential inflection point in absorption.

Related event: On July 7th, we are hosting a virtual meeting with management from

Elion Partners to discuss the Industrial Real Estate market. Reach out for details.

Demand: reviewing industrial absorption and its indicators

In this section, we review current demand indicators (LMI Pricing), trends

(absorption, subleasing) and our industrial demand forecast.