Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE): Debates and pushbacks after upgrade to Buy

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Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE): Debates and pushbacks after upgrade to Buy

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02 Jul 2026 11:00:00 ET │ 17 pages

Saudi Arabian Mining Company

(1211.SE)

Debates and pushbacks after upgrade to Buy

CITI'S TAKE

We upgraded Ma’aden to Buy (Production ramp resumption provides Buy

compelling recovery opportunity) a couple of weeks ago. The company is Price (02 Jul 26 10:29) SAR59.45

well-positioned to capitalize on rising phosphate demand via its Phosphate Target price SAR80.00

3 expansion, a tightening aluminum market, and a bullish gold price

environment. Debates have been around a) Valuation: While the stock Expected share price return 34.6%

trades at a premium to peers, we believe its superior 19% EPS CAGR justifies Expected dividend yield 0.0%

it, and it remains attractive versus its own history. B) Near-term volume Expected total return 34.6%risks: from SoH disruptions are abating, prompting us to raise 2Q-3Q'26

estimates. c) Acquisition risks: We forecast a net cash position by 2028 as Market Cap SAR231,187M

the company prioritizes high-ROIC organic growth over large-scale M&A. US$61,555M

Strong Growth Outlook — We rate Ma'aden a Buy based on its strong volume

growth profile. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on rising phosphate

demand with its Phosphate 3 expansion. We also see decent sales growth from Price Performance

aluminum amid market deficits and a tailwind from our bullish gold price forecast. (RIC: 1211.SE, BB: MAADEN AB)

We forecast a net cash balance sheet by 2028, underpinning the investment case.

Valuation: Premium Justified by Growth — We acknowledge Ma'aden trades at a

premium to its global peers. This valuation is justified by superior growth prospects,

with our EPS CAGR forecast at 19% for '25-'28E.