Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE): Production ramp resumption provides compelling recovery opportunity

研报英文原文证据摘录

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE): Production ramp resumption provides compelling recovery opportunity

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22 Jun 2026 13:00:00 ET │ 22 pages

Saudi Arabian Mining Company

(1211.SE)

Production ramp resumption provides compelling recovery opportunity

CITI'S TAKE

We see concerns on prolonged shipment disruption likely abating with the Buy ↑ from Neutral

potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) likely driving upward Price (22 Jun 26 14:39) SAR63.10

revision to VA consensus estimates. The 25% correction in the stock price Target price SAR80.00

since Feb’26 reflected market expectations of disruptions persisting

through year-end, an assumption that now looks overly cautious in our Expected share price return 26.8%

view. The weighted average revenue index for Ma’aden suggests net upside Expected dividend yield 0.0%

for its key products which together with shipment resumption ahead of Expected total return 26.8%expectations, suggests the stock is likely to respond positively to de-

escalation in the Middle East conflict. Valuation at 12x EBITDA on ‘27 Market Cap SAR245,381M

estimates is lower than its historical average. We upgrade the stock to Buy US$65,372M

with an unchanged 80 SAR TP.

Concerns around product flow could abate with SoH opening — With potential

easing of shipment disruption for its quarterly volumes of up to 1.5 million tonne Price Performance

DAP, 0.8 million tonne Ammonia, 0.4 million tonne aluminium and 120koz of gold,

we see outbound shipment normalization from Q3’26 onwards. While we believe (RIC: 1211.SE, BB: MAADEN AB)

that some of the disruptions were offset using rerouting through trucking and air

cargo, the operating leverage from the net loss of volumes could disrupt earnings in

Q2’26.