MRV Engenharia (MRVE3.SA): Resia selling two assets disappoints vs expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

MRV Engenharia (MRVE3.SA): Resia selling two assets disappoints vs expectations

MRV Engenharia (MRVE3.SA)

22 June 2026 Citi Research

MRV Engenharia

Valuation

Our TP for MRV Engenharia of R$7.5 is based on a DCF with a WACC of 16.2% during the forecast period (2026-30E).

Risks

We assign a High Risk rating to MRV as the company is the most leveraged homebuilding name under our coverage when

interest rates are high in Brazil. Other than that, the company’s US business is undergoing a turnaround and having to sell assets

which poses high risks to the investment case.

High construction-cost inflation continues to weigh on Brazil’s homebuilders, now driven less by materials and more by rising

labor costs. For low-income developers, margins remain especially vulnerable, as there is limited room to pass on additional

cost increases given already significant price adjustments.

MRV’s risk profile is increasingly tied to government policy, given its heavy dependence on the Minha Casa Minha Vida program.

Any changes in funding, regulation, or subsidy levels could directly affect sales volumes and profitability.

Abroad, risks remain linked to the broader U.S. housing environment, with high mortgage rates and recession concerns adding

pressure. Execution at Resia also poses uncertainty, particularly as it expands beyond its core Sun Belt footprint, where scale

diseconomies tend to emerge.

Key industry risks include credit accessibility—much of it reliant on government-mandated lending rules—and the potential for

localized oversupply. Should these risks materialize more severely than anticipated, the shares may fail to reach our target price.

An upside risk could be better than expected cash generation which would improve the company’s earnings.