Liberty Energy Inc (LBRT/N)

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Liberty Energy Inc (LBRT/N)

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17 Jun 2026 18:00:01 ET │ 12 pages

Liberty Energy Inc (LBRT.N)

Lifting Estimates on Frac Pricing Potential

CITI'S TAKE

We caught up with LBRT to discuss recent market trends. 2q appears to be

a solid operational quarter with high-single-digit revenue growth and

normal incrementals (as per their 1q call). We model 7% growth and 35%

incrementals yielding EBITDA of $142mm, or adjusted at $150mm, near Buy

consensus at $149mm. LBRT sees minimal potential pricing gains in 2q. We Price (17 Jun 26 16:00) US$27.17anticipate solid gains hitting in 2H and a more modest seasonal drop in

activity in 4q. Thus, we lift our 2026 EBITDA estimate to $565mm, or Target price US$32.00

adjusted EBITDA of $598mm (4% above consensus). We assume 1 Expected share price return 17.8%

additional fleet utilized in 2027 and additional pricing (high-single-digit in Expected dividend yield 1.0%total) which drives our 2027 EBITDA estimate to $812mm, or $844mm

adjusted (7% above consensus). Within this estimate, we forecast $118mm Expected total return 18.8%

of power EBITDA next year. With estimates likely to move higher during Market Cap US$4,434M

earnings, we remain positive on LBRT and maintain our $32 target price.

Valuation — Our target price for LBRT is based a sum-of-the-parts analysis of their

two segments. We apply a 4x multiple to our estimate of 2027 Completion EBITDA Price Performance

to arrive at ~$15.50/sh of value for this segment. We apply a 10x multiple to our (RIC: LBRT.N, BB: LBRT US)

estimate of run-rate EBITDA with 3GW of power generation capacity deployed and

then discount the equity value back by 4 years at a 15% discount rate to arrive at

~$16.50/sh of present value for their power business. We then add the two values to