US Oil & Gas Equipment and Services: How Much Power Growth Is Discounted Post Sell-Off?

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US Oil & Gas Equipment and Services: How Much Power Growth Is Discounted Post Sell-Off?

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03 Aug 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 15 pages

US Oil & Gas Equipment and Services

How Much Power Growth Is Discounted Post Sell-Off?

CITI'S TAKE

Scott Gruber AC

The sharp pullback in behind-the-meter power providers has erased most +1-212-816-8919

YTD gains for covered equities. Is the market correct to assume growth is at scott.gruber@citi.com

risk or does the sell-off present an opportunity to re-engage on this growth

theme? We still view BTM solutions as fulfilling an important role in meeting

growing power load, and while competition has expanded, we believe we’re

in the rising tide can lift all boats phase. Within our coverage, SEI presents

the highest quality name (robust contract book and medium-term funding

secured) with a 10x multiple on run-rate EBITDA (at 3.2GW) pointing to

>60% upside. The market sees the greatest risk at LBRT and AESI, as just

~18% and ~13% of power growth targets appear discounted, with contracts

thus presenting catalyst potential (see fig. 1). PUMP presents a middle

ground having secured a sizable and growing O&G contract portfolio, but

awaiting a data center deal.

SEI — SEI presents a high-quality name for exposure to BTM power with the pull-

back presenting an attractive entry in our view. The company stands apart by

offering a robust contract book while its funding needs for the next few years appear

to have been met following the recent bond deal. The stock today is trading at ~6.5x

run-rate EBITDA on the 3.2GW of planned capacity while a 10x multiple points to

upside toward ~$85, or >60% upside. With growth toward ~5GW around 2030

possible in our view, we believe a ~10x multiple on the 3.2GW can be justified with