Updated Optical Model

研报英文原文证据摘录

Updated Optical Model

Equity Research

17 June 2026

IT Hardware and Communications Equipment

We update our detailed Optical model that include splits for

Long Haul/Submarine/Metro/Pluggable (ZR/ZR+) and Telco/

Cloud breakouts. We continue to model DD growth on ITEquipmentHardware and Communications

average over CY26E-27E, given sustained cloud strength and NEUTRAL

IT Hardware and Communicationstelco momentum.

Equipment

Tim Long

In this report, we update our expanded Optical model, moving up our 2027 estimates based on +1 212 526 4043

strength across end markets and products. For this market, we are looking at the total Optical tim.long@barclays.com

Networks market, with splits for Long Haul, Submarine, and Metro, as well as Pluggable (ZR/ BCI, US

ZR+) breakouts. Additionally, we include a breakout of customer verticals (Telco, Cloud, Alyssa Shreves

Enterprise) and the estimated market share CIEN has in each. +1 212 526 7570

alyssa.shreves@barclays.com

Overall growth has been choppy the last few years (prior to 2025), given telco digestion (macro) BCI, US

and cloud lumpiness, though beginning 2025 and now moving into CY26-27 we expect growth to

Mary Lenox

sustain at DD levels. We are encouraged by the strength we see across end markets and

+1 212 526 6277

products. We now expect DD growth this year, and an acceleration on this growth into 2027, mary.lenox@barclays.com

given current dynamics around AI. BCI, US

Driving our estimates is the expanding cloud applications (i.e. scale across, hyper-rail, DCOM, Clarisse Yu

etc) and cloud demand acceleration, as well as growing MOFN opportunities (~10-15% of CIEN's +1 212 526 7025

clarisse.yu@barclays.comtelco business) and BEAD funding moving through the market. Our CY26 estimates move to 10%

BCI, US