Weak payrolls: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

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FICC Research

Interest Rates

10 August 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Weak payrolls

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

US CPI: The BLS reported a 23k decline (vs +80k survey) in nonfarm payrolls, while

unemployment declined to 4.1% in July. Average Hourly Earnings growth was muted (+0.1%

m/m), but our economists' state-space model continues to estimate wage growth at 0.26% m/m

(3.1% y/y), reflecting the recent move higher in other trackers. Real yields rallied on a carryadjusted basis on Friday: 2y -4.6bp, 5y -2.9bp, 10y -1.6bp, 30y -0.5bp The breakeven curve sold

off on a carry-/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y -3bp, 2y -1.0bp, 5y -0.5bp, 10y -0.1bp, 30y -0.1bp. Our

economists forecast next week's CPI print will show a rebound in inflation.

FIGURE 1. Average Hourly Earnings vs CPI Core Services ex Shelter

Source: Barclays Research

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the

independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail

investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its

own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests

may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.