Weak payrolls: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

FICC Research

Interest Rates

10 August 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Weak payrolls

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

US CPI: The BLS reported a 23k decline (vs +80k survey) in nonfarm payrolls, while

unemployment declined to 4.1% in July. Average Hourly Earnings growth was muted (+0.1%

m/m), but our economists' state-space model continues to estimate wage growth at 0.26% m/m

(3.1% y/y), reflecting the recent move higher in other trackers. Real yields rallied on a carryadjusted basis on Friday: 2y -4.6bp, 5y -2.9bp, 10y -1.6bp, 30y -0.5bp The breakeven curve sold

off on a carry-/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y -3bp, 2y -1.0bp, 5y -0.5bp, 10y -0.1bp, 30y -0.1bp. Our

economists forecast next week's CPI print will show a rebound in inflation.

FIGURE 1. Average Hourly Earnings vs CPI Core Services ex Shelter

Source: Barclays Research

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may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.