Updated Optical Model

Research evidence excerpt

Updated Optical Model

Equity Research

17 June 2026

IT Hardware and Communications Equipment

We update our detailed Optical model that include splits for

Long Haul/Submarine/Metro/Pluggable (ZR/ZR+) and Telco/

Cloud breakouts. We continue to model DD growth on ITEquipmentHardware and Communications

average over CY26E-27E, given sustained cloud strength and NEUTRAL

IT Hardware and Communicationstelco momentum.

Equipment

Tim Long

In this report, we update our expanded Optical model, moving up our 2027 estimates based on +1 212 526 4043

strength across end markets and products. For this market, we are looking at the total Optical tim.long@barclays.com

Networks market, with splits for Long Haul, Submarine, and Metro, as well as Pluggable (ZR/ BCI, US

ZR+) breakouts. Additionally, we include a breakout of customer verticals (Telco, Cloud, Alyssa Shreves

Enterprise) and the estimated market share CIEN has in each. +1 212 526 7570

alyssa.shreves@barclays.com

Overall growth has been choppy the last few years (prior to 2025), given telco digestion (macro) BCI, US

and cloud lumpiness, though beginning 2025 and now moving into CY26-27 we expect growth to

Mary Lenox

sustain at DD levels. We are encouraged by the strength we see across end markets and

+1 212 526 6277

products. We now expect DD growth this year, and an acceleration on this growth into 2027, mary.lenox@barclays.com

given current dynamics around AI. BCI, US

Driving our estimates is the expanding cloud applications (i.e. scale across, hyper-rail, DCOM, Clarisse Yu

etc) and cloud demand acceleration, as well as growing MOFN opportunities (~10-15% of CIEN's +1 212 526 7025

clarisse.yu@barclays.comtelco business) and BEAD funding moving through the market. Our CY26 estimates move to 10%

BCI, US