Grupo Bimbo: 2Q26: Solid Execution But In Line EBITDA; 2027 Remains Our Main Concern

研报英文原文证据摘录

Grupo Bimbo: 2Q26: Solid Execution But In Line EBITDA; 2027 Remains Our Main Concern

Idea

July 23, 2026 11:46 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MGrupo Bimbo | Latin America Ricardo L Alves

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Solid Execution But In Ricardo.Alves@morganstanley.comLucas T Mussi +55 11 3048-6238

Research Associate

Lucas.Mussi@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9565

Line EBITDA; 2027 Remains Our Henrique Morello

Henrique.Morello@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6041

Main Concern

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV (BIMBOA.MX, BIMBOA MM)

LatAm Food & Beverage | Mexico

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Underweight

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Industry View No Rating

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target M$51.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 23, 2026) M$59.00

Mkt cap, curr (mm) M$253,980

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 52-Week Range M$68.67-48.90

Operationally, we think Bimbo's 2Q was quite solid & a resilient Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (M$)** 2.58 3.22 3.46 4.04

top-line in Mexico was the main +ve, in our eyes. That said, Prior EPS (M$)** - - - -

EBITDA virtually matched MS/Street. Beyond the Q, we believe P/EDiv yld (%) 22.81.8 18.31.8 17.11.9 14.62.1

there is more downside risks to 2027 (costs) than upside Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

potential in 2H26 (new guidance). At 17x PE, we stay UW. framework** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Our view: Bimbo 2Q was quite solid operationally, in our view, with resilient

Mexico amidst a difficult macro backdrop; that said, EBITDA was in line with

estimates, and net income missed. With a valuation that still screens as rich to