Mexico Food Upgrading Sigma to OW As Valuation Re-set Creates Good Entry Point - Gruma & Bimbo Ratings Unchanged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico Food Upgrading Sigma to OW As Valuation Re-set Creates Good Entry Point - Gruma & Bimbo Ratings Unchanged

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

22 June 2026

Mexico Food

Upgrading Sigma to OW As Valuation Re-set Creates

Good Entry Point - Gruma & Bimbo Ratings Unchanged

We upgrade Sigma Foods to Overweight as risk/reward has improved after a ~30% LatAm Consumer / Food &

de-rating since from Sigma (15% underperformance from Mexbol), leaving the Beverages

stock at ~12.7x P/E vs ~15x group average, and with our Dec-26 PT implying Froylan Mendez AC

~40% upside. Importantly, our SIGMA base case remains conservative: we do not (52-55) 5540-9482

embed the full Europe upside, which could add ~Ps3/sh to our PT (+~25% froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

additional upside potential) if margins in the region double. We see 2Q26 as the key J.P.MorganMorganGrupoCasaFinancierode Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

catalyst after a difficult-to-read 1Q—an important checkpoint toward AC Lucas Ferreira

delivering 2026 guidance. Sigma’s setup also looks cleaner than peers: improving (55-11) 4950-3629

mix (value-added/new channels) plus protein-related cost tailwinds should lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.com

support margin resilience and reduce guidance downside risk, even as the Mexico Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Food sector continues to face fragile demand and cost volatility. Beyond the near Larissa Perez

term, Sigma’s long-term growth + returns profile remains better than peers (c. 8% (55-11) 4950-6400

EBITDA CAGR; ~30% ROE), with incremental shareholder return capacity larissa.perez@jpmchase.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

given FCFF yield ~7% (26E) rising to ~9% (27E) vs ~3% dividend yield. For the

rest of our coverage, we keep Bimbo UW (3% downside to PT): strong execution