ENEOS Holdings (5020): Lower PO; overseas margin strength to support growth strategy

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ENEOS Holdings (5020): Lower PO; overseas margin strength to support growth strategy

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ENEOS Holdings (5020)

Lower PO; overseas margin strength to

support growth strategy

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 1,600 JPY | Price: 1,265 JPY

14 July 2026

Cut PO to ¥1,600 from ¥1,630; reiterate Buy Equity

We raise our earnings estimates to reflect the acquisition of Chevron’s Southeast Asia

and Oceania businesses, the acquisition of a 10% stake in Malaysia LNG Tiga, and gains

from the sale of JX Metals shares. However, excluding these acquisition-related benefits, Key Changes

we lower our underlying earnings estimates, mainly due to a weaker outlook for (¥) Previous Current

domestic refining margins. As a result, we reduce the valuation multiple applied to our Price Obj. 1,630.00 1,600.00

price objective (PO) and tweak down our PO. Our new PO is based on 12x FY3/28 EPS 2027E Rev (m) 11,584,200.0 12,327,600.0

excluding inventory effects (previously 13x). We reiterate Buy, as we expect solid 2028E Rev (m) 11,344,600.0 12,097,000.0

earnings growth supported by improvements in domestic and overseas refining margins, 2029E Rev (m) 11,155,500.0 11,911,100.0

growth investments, and cost reductions. 2027E EPS 114.21 146.42

2028E EPS 122.05 133.86

Revise estimates: crude oil price assumptions and 2029E EPS 146.34 163.01

2027E EBITDA (m) 846,000.0 911,000.0production curtailment impacts

In addition to the factors discussed above, we revise our estimates to reflect stronger 2028E EBITDA (m) 896,000.0 906,000.0

overseas refining margins and lubricant earnings, as well as time-lag effects arising 2029E EBITDA (m) 1,006,000.0 1,026,000.0

from changes in our crude oil price assumptions (2026: from US$93/bbl to US$82/bbl;

2027: from US$78/bbl to US$70/bbl).