China Basic Materials June 26 NBS data: Resilient demand to support high metal prices and strengthen miners’ earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Basic Materials June 26 NBS data: Resilient demand to support high metal prices and strengthen miners’ earnings

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

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China Basic Materials

June 26 NBS data: Resilient demand to support high

metal prices and strengthen miners’ earnings

Against a still-cautious domestic demand backdrop, as reflected in June activity Asia Basic Materials

ACdata (link to report), we see a growing disconnect between resilient metals Avery Chan

fundamentals and subdued equity expectations (MSCI China Materials Index - (852) 2800-8659

14% MTD vs. HSCEI +1.4% MTD), while a less hawkish rate narrative could avery.chan@jpmorgan.com

support a sector re-rating if expectations continue to moderate. Fundamentals Sabrina Liu

remain broadly healthy in our preferred areas: copper supply remains tight; (852) 2800-8535

aluminum has been stronger than expected with strong exports and lower-than- sabrina.liu@jpmorgan.com

expected Indonesian capacity additions; and lithium appears to have largely priced Frankie Fong

in CATL’s Jianxiawo mine restart following land-use permit confirmation. By (852) 2800-8574

frankie.fong@jpmorgan.com

contrast, coal and steel remain weaker pockets, as Shanxi supply disruption was J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

less severe than feared, hydro substitution weighed on coal prices, and higher raw- Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

material costs continued to pressure steel margins.