China Basic Materials June 26 NBS data: Resilient demand to support high metal prices and strengthen miners’ earnings

Research evidence excerpt

China Basic Materials June 26 NBS data: Resilient demand to support high metal prices and strengthen miners’ earnings

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the

territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.

China Basic Materials

June 26 NBS data: Resilient demand to support high

metal prices and strengthen miners’ earnings

Against a still-cautious domestic demand backdrop, as reflected in June activity Asia Basic Materials

ACdata (link to report), we see a growing disconnect between resilient metals Avery Chan

fundamentals and subdued equity expectations (MSCI China Materials Index - (852) 2800-8659

14% MTD vs. HSCEI +1.4% MTD), while a less hawkish rate narrative could avery.chan@jpmorgan.com

support a sector re-rating if expectations continue to moderate. Fundamentals Sabrina Liu

remain broadly healthy in our preferred areas: copper supply remains tight; (852) 2800-8535

aluminum has been stronger than expected with strong exports and lower-than- sabrina.liu@jpmorgan.com

expected Indonesian capacity additions; and lithium appears to have largely priced Frankie Fong

in CATL’s Jianxiawo mine restart following land-use permit confirmation. By (852) 2800-8574

frankie.fong@jpmorgan.com

contrast, coal and steel remain weaker pockets, as Shanxi supply disruption was J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

less severe than feared, hydro substitution weighed on coal prices, and higher raw- Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

material costs continued to pressure steel margins.