J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 27 Jul 26 China: Economics; CATL; HSBC Holdings plc (0005); Greater China Data Watch; Asia Transport Ecosystems

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 27 Jul 26 China: Economics; CATL; HSBC Holdings plc (0005); Greater China Data Watch; Asia Transport Ecosystems

Asia Pacific Equity Research

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities

investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof

may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. APAC MASTER

TEMPLATE27

China/HK First to Market 27 July 2026

Top Stories

China: A preview of the July Politburo, China (Tingting Ge)

The July Politburo is likely to prioritize faster deployment of the existing budget rather than a new fiscal

package, with 4.7% 1H GDP within 4.5–5.0% target range.

Policymakers may push for quicker project approvals, bond issuance, fund deployment, and greater use of

policy bank tools.

CATL, Hong Kong, China (Rebecca Wen)

2Q26 result in-line; all eyes on 2027 demand outlook

CATL-H share price has fallen 20% from its recent peak on 2-June (HSI -4%) on concerns over its 2Q26

results and the 2027 industry demand outlook. 2Q26 net profit came in at Rmb22.5bn, at the mid-end of the

Rmb22-23bn market expectation range, which had been skewed lower (see our 11-July report CATL:

Accumulate the dip, not the 2027 fear). As we highlighted as a potential risk in 2Q26, gross profit per unit or

GPM softened in 2Q26/1H26. We view this as strategic in customer price negotiations and believe CATL's

underlying fundamentals remain strong. At the 8pm results briefing, Mgmt reaffirmed a 20-30% demand

CAGR towards 2030E. Mgmt also provided some comfort on demand sustainability in 2027 (believing it may

be better than the “20-30% LT CAGR”) and commented that the impact from consumption tax and VAT