Consensus looks reasonable; Easy comp in Brazil could drive upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Consensus looks reasonable; Easy comp in Brazil could drive upside

July 6, 2026

(1) global share leadership and especially strong market positions in key regions; (2) an unparalleled brand

portfolio; (3) established and strong RTMs; (4) B/S below 3x; (5) surging FCF with capex <4% of sales; (6)

control of the most important marketing assets, like the World Cup; (7) strong grasp of digital tech and

commercial opportunities; and (8) an unusually stable cadre of strong business managers working in an

ownership-driven culture focused on disciplined execution year after year

We present key variables that could drive upside or downside: Upside: World Cup uplift, less COGS

pressure than expected, and upside in Brazil and/or Korea off easy comp; Downside: Continued macro-

related pressures, especially in China, additional COGS pressures, and higher marketing

BUD has made progress rebalancing its U.S. portfolio, has upside potential from deleveraging, and

has a strong international opportunity across the portfolio. We believe the stock is cheap and

represents an attractive value at these levels, with significant upside potential. We see valuation

upside from a more optimal balance of lower risk and higher returns given ABI’s reduced leverage, focus

on organic growth, and lower capex, which should propel earnings growth ahead of EBITDA and FCF.

Moreover, we believe that translational FX is likely to turn to a positive over 2026, potentially a 2-3%+ benefit

to EPS. When put together with its +4-8% EBITDA algo, buybacks, debt paydown, accretion from metal

business deal, and its ~1.5% dividend yield, we see a credible path to mid-teens % value creation in 2026,

which is ahead of a basket of global leaders. Yes, the macro/FX risk is greater for ABI, so some discount