Anheuser-Busch InBev SA: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (BUD.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Organic volume growth (%) (2.3) 1.0 1.5 1.6

Organic sales growth (%) 2.0 4.8 4.7 4.1

Organic EBITDA growth (%) 4.9 5.3 8.8 4.5

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Pace of recovery post Covid-19 RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Input cost inflation and demand elasticity Market share gain in the US 4.43 Stabilising US core; building share in hard More sustained growth in China EPS

seltzers Per capita consumption growth in EMs (US$) 3.91 4.63

Upside from premiumisation in Asia Significant cost saving initiatives 4.39

Cost saving measures and deleveraging Further decline in commodity costs

17,591

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBIT

16,566 18,512GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Slower than expected cash return (US$, mn) 17,681

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Reversal of commodity cost declines 0-10% China and India Increased competitive pressures globally

0-10% Europe ex UK Change in regulations and excise duty in key 8,738

0-10% India markets Net income 7,862 10,839

0-10% MEA FX: USD strengthening against EM currencies (US$, mn) 8,935

0-10% Mainland China

0-10% UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 20-30% North America

50-60% Latin America Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Inst. Owners, % Active 80.6%

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 0.9x

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

HF Sector Net Exposure -0.5%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.