H126 Preview: Too Soon to Say Sayonara

研报英文原文证据摘录

H126 Preview: Too Soon to Say Sayonara

EUROPE | Beverages

AB InBev EquityJuneResearch29, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEH126 Preview: Too Soon to Say Sayonara

After a period of extreme volatility, a clearer picture of ABI’s compounding RATING BUY

ability and cash returns prospects is starting to emerge. Execution is PRICE €73.52^

improving, 2Q should deliver another quarter of positive vols, mix is an PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €84.00 (€80.00) | +14%

increasingly important contributor and FCF generation remains strong. 52W HIGH-LOW €74.68 - €48.87

Consistency of delivery and increasing cash returns should drive DD TSR, FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 41.1% | 189.90

with FX tailwinds offering further upside. PT to €84/ US$95. Cal 2027E PE MARKET CAP €145.1B | $165.4B

17.7x vs staples 16.5x. TICKER ABI BB

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

What's new? ABI reports 2Q26 results on 30 July. We look for 2Q org vols/sales/EBITDA +0.6%/

+4.7%/+4.9%. We expect US$ EPS growth of 15.7% to $1.12 with decent leverage through the RATING BUY

P&L with FX a tailwind and the SBB. We expect the company to deliver F26 org EBITDA 5.1%, TICKER BUD

within the med-term guidance framework 4-8%.

PRICE $83.84^

What's changed? We reduce F26 EPS by -1% to reflect slightly higher impact from disposals PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $95.00 ($92.00) | +13%

however for F27, we increase EPS +1.5% given recent favourable COGS moves, with oil -30%

since April. This largely unwinds the downgrades we put through in our sector report Trimming FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

for Middle East Conflict. 2026 2027 2026 2027

2Q performance to differ by region. We model 2Q N.America org vols -1% vs 1Q -3.1% with REV NM +1% -2% -3%