PDN: PLS is bigger than you think - Upgrade to Outperform

研报英文原文证据摘录

PDN: PLS is bigger than you think - Upgrade to Outperform

ide catalyst P/AEPS NM NM 29.1x 22.7x

at PLS. Paladin is pursuing infill drilling at Triple R and active exploration

at the newly confirmed Atlas discovery, where grade thickness is already EPS, Adj Basic: Data in AUD

tracking materially above initial results — consistent with three of four Production: klb

recent Patterson Lake area discoveries. The 2026 summer drilling program CFPSAll marketBasic:dataDataininAUD;AUD all financial data in USD.

is the next material potential catalyst. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

Project cancellation risk is overstated. Of ~15 Indigenous opposition

episodes surveyed over 30 years, only two resulted in cancellation, both

requiring wholesale consultation failure. Paladin has executed MBAs with

CRDN and BRDN, the two most critical LPA First Nations, with a third

in active negotiation. MN-S opposition is procedural rather than a title

assertion, and federal nuclear policy provides a further tailwind.

At Langer Heinrich, we forecast a solid but cost-elevated 4Q FY26 —

production of 1.2Mlb (in line with consensus) and unit costs of US$57/lb,

driven by J pit stripping costs being expensed this quarter. For FY27, we

forecast 5.5Mlb at US$46/lb. Namibian diesel, up ~20% since end of 3Q,

remains the key cost risk adding up to ~US$1/lb.

Earnings revisions are mixed. Our price target increase to A$13.50 is

primarily driven by our PLS valuation lift and US$10/lb uranium price

upgrade. We lift FY27 operating cash flow on stronger uranium pricing, but

have lowered our outlook for EBITDA as a result of higher expensed mining

costs in FY27-28.

Please see our Australian Uranium Producers preview note for more

details.