Australian Uranium Producers - Upgrading our U3O8 Price

研报英文原文证据摘录

Australian Uranium Producers - Upgrading our U3O8 Price

Royal Bank of Canada, Sydney

Branch

Alistair Rankin (Analyst)

+61 3 8688 6551,

alistair.rankin@rbccm.com

Gordon Ramsay (Analyst)

+61 3 8688 6578,

gordon.ramsay@rbccm.com

June 30, 2026 RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Andrew D. Wong (Analyst)

(416) 842-7830, Australian Uranium Producers - Upgrading our U3O8 andrew.d.wong@rbccm.comRESEARCH Price

June Quarter 2026 Preview

Our view: Policy catalysts are stacking faster than supply can respond. The US DOE's US$17.5bn

commitment to fund ten new AP1000 reactors, Canada's plan for ten new reactors by 2040, and

accelerating sovereign and hyperscaler demand are collectively adding demand that a structurally

under-supplied market simply cannot absorb. Execution risk is pervasive, and new mines take decades

to develop. The term market knows this: fixed-price deals are already transacting at $100/lb while theEQUITY

published $95/lb indicator lags reality. We raise our long-term price forecast to US$110/lb. We have

upgraded Paladin to Outperform (see Note) underpinned by an increase to our PLS valuation.

The June 2026 quarter reinforced uranium's deepening structural tightening, with demand catalysts

multiplying across sovereign buyers, hyperscalers, and a new large-scale reactor construction cycle. The

most consequential development was the US DOE's commitment of US$17.5bn in conditional loans to

accelerate ten new AP1000 reactors, adding ~13Mlb of annual U₃O₈ demand (~7% of long-term global

demand) to a market already in structural deficit. Canada's ten-reactor nuclear strategy and Sweden's

first new reactor financing agreement in four decades underscored that policy momentum is now broad-

based and accelerating.